Predictions
Matches
Calendar
H2H
Rankings
Picks Blog
Rafael Nadal vs Alex De Minaur Prediction, Head-to-Head, Odds & Pick - Matchstat.com
By Wojtek Kolan
At Matchstat.com we give you unbeatable in-depth analysis of past and current event tennis stats, to give you accurate tennis predictions, picks, odds and value bets. Let's dive in with our Nadal vs Minaur analysis and find out who is favored!
Rafael Nadal vs Alex De Minaur Important H2H Prediction Stats:
- Second serve performance recent form: In recent form (last 6 months), Nadal has won 53.74% of points on his second serve, while Minaur has won 55.97%. There is a high correlation between this stat and match prediction accuracy.
- Return game stats recent form: Return stats show Nadal, in recent form, has won 53.29% of his opponent's second serve points, while Minaur has won 55.09%. The same stats for first serve returns are 31.58% and 34.41% respectively and this has a high correlation to pick who is favored in this H2H matchup.
- Under pressure analysis: Nadal has saved 55.1% of breakpoints in recent form, whereas Minaur has saved 59.79% which is a useful statistic for in-game betting predictions.
- Performance overview: Over the last year Nadal has won 63.64% of matches played (W/L 7/ 4), with Minaur winning 68.29% (W/L 56/ 26) that gives us an overall head-to head prediction overview.
- Best surface: Nadal has their best career surface win % on Clay, winning 90% (W/L 506/ 56), and worse career win % on I.hard, winning 68% (W/L 82/ 38). Minaur has their best career surface win % on Grass, winning 67% (W/L 44/ 22), and worse career win % on Clay, winning 55% (W/L 61/ 50).
- Player level: In the last year, Nadal has played most of their matches on the Masters series, winning 66.67% of matches (W/L 4/ 2), where as Minaur has played most of their matches on the Main tour, winning 71.05% of matches (W/L 27/ 11). When comparing stats between players to predict the favorite, it is of course all relative to the event level they have been playing at.
- Direct H2H matches: They have played 6 times before with Nadal winning 4 times. They have played 16 sets in total, with Nadal winning 11 and Minaur winning 5. The last match between Nadal and Minaur was at the Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid, 27-04-2024, Second, Clay with Rafael Nadal getting the victory 7-6(6) 6-3.
- Head to head match duration: In past head to head matches, the average match time between these players has been 2:12:22.
- Deciding set H2H prediction: Nadal and Minaur have played a deciding set 2 times, with Nadal winning 1 times and Minaur 1 times. Very useful for predicting the outcome if this match goes the distance.
- Head-to-Head extreme pressure situations: They have played 1 tiebreaks against each other with Nadal winning 1, and Minaur 0.
- Opponent quality stats: Over the last 12 months, Nadal has played against opponents with an average rank of 104.36 while Minaur has played against players with an average rank of 86.07.
- Deciding set performance vs all players: If you are interested in live predictions and betting, if this match goes into a deciding set, Nadal has won 67% of deciding sets over the last 12 months, while Minaur has won 70% in all matches played on tour.
- Break point conversion: In recent form, Nadal has converted 43.75% of breakpoint opportunities, and Minaur has converted 42.05% of their chances to break their opponents serve. A telling stat for in-game live betting tips when either player has a breakpoint opportunity.
Head-to-head: Nadal 4 - 2 Minaur
305
Rank
1
High
37
Age
L
Plays
4
Total2
2
Hard1
1
Clay1
0
Indoor0
1
Grass0
11
Rank
9
High
25
Age
R
Plays
W
L
W
L
W
W
W
L
W
L
Form
W
W
W
L
W
L
L
W
W
L
82% (1119-240)
Career Total W/L
63% (335-195)
64% (7-4)
YTD W/L
71% (25-10)
$96,533,810
Career Prize Money
$8,585,855
0
YTD Titles
1
Currently displayed stats includes matches of all levels. To exclude lower level events (as per ATP / WTA official stats) toggle button in page footer.
| stats | Rafael Nadal | Alex De Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| All H2H Matches | 4 | 2 |
| Sets Won | 11 | 5 |
| Games Won | 84 | 64 |
| Aces (Total) | 18 | 24 |
| DFs (Total) | 17 | 20 |
| Avg Match Time | 2:12:22 | 2:12:22 |
| 1st Serve % | 68% (321/474) | 61% (286/467) |
| 1st Serve Win% | 72% (230/321) | 65% (186/286) |
| 2nd Serve Win% | 48% (74/153) | 50% (91/181) |
| BPs Won% (Total) | 46% (23/50) | 42% (15/36) |
| Return Points W% | 40% (188/467) | 35% (164/474) |
| Best of 3 Sets W% | 50% (2/4) | 50% (2/4) |
| Best of 5 Sets W% | 100% (2/2) | 0% (0/2) |
| TBs Win% (Total) | 100% (1/1) | 0% (0/1) |
| Deciding Set Win% | 50% (1/2) | 50% (1/2) |
| 1st set W, W | 75% (4/3) | 50% (2/1) |
| 1st set W, L | 25% (4/1) | 50% (2/1) |
| 1st set L, W | 50% (2/1) | 25% (4/1) |
| Winning Player | Losing Player | Score | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7-6(6) 6-3 |
Stats 
Rafael Nadal
Player
Alex De Minaur
73%
(
45 of
62)
1st Serve %
66%
(
44 of
67)
0
Aces
2
2
Double Faults
3
71%
(
32 of
45)
1st Serve Won
66%
(
29 of
44)
53%
(
9 of
17)
2nd Serve Won
52%
(
12 of
23)
80%
(
4 of
5)
Break Points Won
50%
(
2 of
4)
34%
(
21 of
62)
Rtn Points Won
39%
(
26 of
67)
67
Total Points Won
62
|
||||
| 7-5 6-1 |
Stats
Alex De Minaur
Player
Rafael Nadal
52%
(
28 of
54)
1st Serve %
68%
(
50 of
73)
2
Aces
0
3
Double Faults
1
75%
(
21 of
28)
1st Serve Won
58%
(
29 of
50)
65%
(
17 of
26)
2nd Serve Won
35%
(
8 of
23)
56%
(
5 of
9)
Break Points Won
33%
(
1 of
3)
30%
(
16 of
54)
Rtn Points Won
49%
(
36 of
73)
74
Total Points Won
53
|
||||
| 3-6 6-1 7-5 |
Stats
Alex De Minaur
Player
Rafael Nadal
62%
(
62 of
100)
1st Serve %
61%
(
56 of
92)
3
Aces
2
6
Double Faults
4
63%
(
39 of
62)
1st Serve Won
61%
(
34 of
56)
50%
(
19 of
38)
2nd Serve Won
44%
(
16 of
36)
46%
(
6 of
13)
Break Points Won
33%
(
4 of
12)
42%
(
42 of
100)
Rtn Points Won
46%
(
42 of
92)
100
Total Points Won
92
|
||||
| 4-6 7-5 6-1 |
Stats
Rafael Nadal
Player
Alex De Minaur
73%
(
61 of
84)
1st Serve %
73%
(
55 of
75)
5
Aces
6
3
Double Faults
1
79%
(
48 of
61)
1st Serve Won
67%
(
37 of
55)
43%
(
10 of
23)
2nd Serve Won
50%
(
10 of
20)
80%
(
4 of
5)
Break Points Won
67%
(
2 of
3)
31%
(
26 of
84)
Rtn Points Won
37%
(
28 of
75)
86
Total Points Won
73
|
||||
| 6-1 6-2 6-4 |
Stats
Rafael Nadal
Player
Alex De Minaur
75%
(
65 of
87)
1st Serve %
57%
(
54 of
94)
6
Aces
3
6
Double Faults
2
82%
(
53 of
65)
1st Serve Won
63%
(
34 of
54)
36%
(
8 of
22)
2nd Serve Won
40%
(
16 of
40)
38%
(
5 of
13)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
4)
30%
(
26 of
87)
Rtn Points Won
47%
(
44 of
94)
105
Total Points Won
76
|
||||
| 6-1 6-2 6-4 |
Stats
Rafael Nadal
Player
Alex De Minaur
58%
(
44 of
76)
1st Serve %
56%
(
43 of
77)
5
Aces
8
1
Double Faults
5
77%
(
34 of
44)
1st Serve Won
60%
(
26 of
43)
72%
(
23 of
32)
2nd Serve Won
50%
(
17 of
34)
42%
(
5 of
12)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
3)
25%
(
19 of
76)
Rtn Points Won
44%
(
34 of
77)
91
Total Points Won
62
|
||||
Stats Breakdown Vs All H2H Opponents
| stats | Rafael Nadal | Alex De Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| YTD W/L | 64% (7/4) | 71% (25/10) |
| Sets Win/Loss | 60% (15/10) | 67% (57/28) |
| Games Win/Loss | 56% (131/104) | 56% (438/340) |
| Hard Win/Loss | 67% (2/1) | 75% (15/5) |
| Clay Win/Loss | 63% (5/3) | 60% (6/4) |
| Indoor Hard W/L | 0% (0/0) | 80% (4/1) |
| Grass Win/Loss | 0% (0/0) | 0% (0/0) |
| Aces pg | 0.19 | 0.38 |
| Aces Total | 22 | 145 |
| DFs per game | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| DFs Total | 19 | 69 |
| Avg Match Time | 2:1:36 | 1:45:39 |
| Avg Opp Rank | 104.36 | 85.4 |
| 1st Serve % | 68% (490/717) | 55% (1243/2254) |
| 1st Serve W% | 70% (342/490) | 72% (893/1243) |
| 2nd Serve W% | 54% (122/227) | 56% (567/1011) |
| BPs Won% Total | 44% (35/80) | 44% (119/271) |
| Return Pts W% | 40% (298/745) | 42% (1072/2528) |
| Slam W/L | 0% (0/0) | 75% (3/1) |
| Masters W/L | 67% (4/2) | 64% (9/5) |
| Cups W/L | 0% (0/0) | 0% (0/0) |
| Main Tour W/L | 60% (3/2) | 76% (13/4) |
| Tour Finals W/L | 0% (0/0) | 0% (0/0) |
| Challenger W/L | 0% (0/0) | 0% (0/0) |
| Futures W/L | 0% (0/0) | 0% (0/0) |
| Best of 3 Sets W% | 64% (7/11) | 70% (21/30) |
| Best of 5 Sets W% | 0% (0/0) | 80% (4/5) |
| TBs Win% (Total) | 33% (1/3) | 50% (4/8) |
| Deciding Set W% | 67% (2/3) | 56% (5/9) |
| 1st set W, W | 86% (7/6) | 95% (21/20) |
| 1st set W, L | 14% (7/1) | 5% (21/1) |
| 1st set L, W | 25% (4/1) | 36% (14/5) |
Rafael Nadal Recent Matches Played
Before:
| opponent | Score | H2H | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R2 |
Stats
Hubert Hurkacz
Player
Rafael Nadal
54%
(
30 of
56)
1st Serve %
72%
(
38 of
53)
9
Aces
1
1
Double Faults
1
83%
(
25 of
30)
1st Serve Won
53%
(
20 of
38)
62%
(
16 of
26)
2nd Serve Won
53%
(
8 of
15)
57%
(
4 of
7)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
7)
27%
(
15 of
56)
Rtn Points Won
47%
(
25 of
53)
66
Total Points Won
43
|
6-1 6-3 | H2H | ||
| R1 |
Stats
Rafael Nadal
Player
Zizou Bergs
62%
(
58 of
93)
1st Serve %
56%
(
44 of
78)
3
Aces
7
4
Double Faults
4
67%
(
39 of
58)
1st Serve Won
68%
(
30 of
44)
63%
(
22 of
35)
2nd Serve Won
62%
(
21 of
34)
43%
(
3 of
7)
Break Points Won
22%
(
2 of
9)
34%
(
32 of
93)
Rtn Points Won
35%
(
27 of
78)
88
Total Points Won
83
|
4-6 6-3 6-4 | H2H | ||
| R4 |
Stats
Jiri Lehecka
Player
Rafael Nadal
71%
(
46 of
65)
1st Serve %
61%
(
44 of
72)
7
Aces
2
1
Double Faults
2
89%
(
41 of
46)
1st Serve Won
68%
(
30 of
44)
37%
(
7 of
19)
2nd Serve Won
50%
(
14 of
28)
40%
(
2 of
5)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
1)
26%
(
17 of
65)
Rtn Points Won
39%
(
28 of
72)
76
Total Points Won
61
|
7-5 6-4 | H2H | ||
| R3 |
Stats
Rafael Nadal
Player
Pedro Cachin
78%
(
59 of
76)
1st Serve %
61%
(
74 of
122)
0
Aces
3
0
Double Faults
3
64%
(
38 of
59)
1st Serve Won
53%
(
39 of
74)
35%
(
6 of
17)
2nd Serve Won
38%
(
18 of
48)
50%
(
9 of
18)
Break Points Won
67%
(
4 of
6)
42%
(
32 of
76)
Rtn Points Won
53%
(
65 of
122)
109
Total Points Won
89
|
6-1 6-7(5) 6-3 | H2H | ||
| R2 |
Stats
Rafael Nadal
Player
Alex De Minaur
73%
(
45 of
62)
1st Serve %
66%
(
44 of
67)
0
Aces
2
2
Double Faults
3
71%
(
32 of
45)
1st Serve Won
66%
(
29 of
44)
53%
(
9 of
17)
2nd Serve Won
52%
(
12 of
23)
80%
(
4 of
5)
Break Points Won
50%
(
2 of
4)
34%
(
21 of
62)
Rtn Points Won
39%
(
26 of
67)
67
Total Points Won
62
|
7-6(6) 6-3 | H2H | ||
| R1 |
Stats
Rafael Nadal
Player
Darwin Blanch
62%
(
24 of
39)
1st Serve %
69%
(
27 of
39)
2
Aces
2
0
Double Faults
2
79%
(
19 of
24)
1st Serve Won
52%
(
14 of
27)
73%
(
11 of
15)
2nd Serve Won
17%
(
2 of
12)
56%
(
5 of
9)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
0)
23%
(
9 of
39)
Rtn Points Won
59%
(
23 of
39)
53
Total Points Won
25
|
6-1 6-0 | H2H | ||
| R2 |
Stats
Alex De Minaur
Player
Rafael Nadal
52%
(
28 of
54)
1st Serve %
68%
(
50 of
73)
2
Aces
0
3
Double Faults
1
75%
(
21 of
28)
1st Serve Won
58%
(
29 of
50)
65%
(
17 of
26)
2nd Serve Won
35%
(
8 of
23)
56%
(
5 of
9)
Break Points Won
33%
(
1 of
3)
30%
(
16 of
54)
Rtn Points Won
49%
(
36 of
73)
74
Total Points Won
53
|
7-5 6-1 | H2H | ||
| R1 |
Stats
Rafael Nadal
Player
Flavio Cobolli
65%
(
32 of
49)
1st Serve %
49%
(
27 of
55)
0
Aces
3
3
Double Faults
3
78%
(
25 of
32)
1st Serve Won
70%
(
19 of
27)
53%
(
9 of
17)
2nd Serve Won
36%
(
10 of
28)
40%
(
4 of
10)
Break Points Won
50%
(
1 of
2)
31%
(
15 of
49)
Rtn Points Won
47%
(
26 of
55)
60
Total Points Won
44
|
6-2 6-3 | H2H | ||
| QF |
Stats
Jordan Thompson
Player
Rafael Nadal
61%
(
67 of
109)
1st Serve %
73%
(
79 of
108)
8
Aces
7
3
Double Faults
2
76%
(
51 of
67)
1st Serve Won
73%
(
58 of
79)
48%
(
20 of
42)
2nd Serve Won
45%
(
13 of
29)
67%
(
2 of
3)
Break Points Won
25%
(
2 of
8)
35%
(
38 of
109)
Rtn Points Won
34%
(
37 of
108)
108
Total Points Won
109
|
5-7 7-6(6) 6-3 | H2H | ||
| R2 |
Stats
Rafael Nadal
Player
Jason Murray Kubler
65%
(
30 of
46)
1st Serve %
76%
(
35 of
46)
4
Aces
1
3
Double Faults
3
80%
(
24 of
30)
1st Serve Won
57%
(
20 of
35)
63%
(
10 of
16)
2nd Serve Won
18%
(
2 of
11)
67%
(
4 of
6)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
4)
26%
(
12 of
46)
Rtn Points Won
52%
(
24 of
46)
58
Total Points Won
34
|
6-1 6-2 | H2H | ||
view more
Alex De Minaur Recent Matches Played
Before:
| opponent | Score | H2H | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R4 |
Stats
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Player
Alex De Minaur
69%
(
27 of
39)
1st Serve %
66%
(
27 of
41)
0
Aces
0
0
Double Faults
1
74%
(
20 of
27)
1st Serve Won
48%
(
13 of
27)
83%
(
10 of
12)
2nd Serve Won
36%
(
5 of
14)
63%
(
5 of
8)
Break Points Won
50%
(
1 of
2)
23%
(
9 of
39)
Rtn Points Won
56%
(
23 of
41)
53
Total Points Won
27
|
6-1 6-2 | H2H | ||
| R3 | 6-7(2) 6-4 6-4 | H2H | |||
| R2 |
Stats
Alex De Minaur
Player
Roberto Carballes Baena
57%
(
27 of
47)
1st Serve %
63%
(
35 of
56)
4
Aces
1
3
Double Faults
5
74%
(
20 of
27)
1st Serve Won
40%
(
14 of
35)
55%
(
11 of
20)
2nd Serve Won
43%
(
9 of
21)
46%
(
6 of
13)
Break Points Won
50%
(
2 of
4)
34%
(
16 of
47)
Rtn Points Won
59%
(
33 of
56)
64
Total Points Won
39
|
6-3 6-2 | H2H | ||
| R2 |
Stats
Rafael Nadal
Player
Alex De Minaur
73%
(
45 of
62)
1st Serve %
66%
(
44 of
67)
0
Aces
2
2
Double Faults
3
71%
(
32 of
45)
1st Serve Won
66%
(
29 of
44)
53%
(
9 of
17)
2nd Serve Won
52%
(
12 of
23)
80%
(
4 of
5)
Break Points Won
50%
(
2 of
4)
34%
(
21 of
62)
Rtn Points Won
39%
(
26 of
67)
67
Total Points Won
62
|
7-6(6) 6-3 | H2H | ||
| R3 |
Stats
Arthur Fils
Player
Alex De Minaur
61%
(
34 of
56)
1st Serve %
59%
(
41 of
69)
4
Aces
2
1
Double Faults
4
71%
(
24 of
34)
1st Serve Won
61%
(
25 of
41)
55%
(
12 of
22)
2nd Serve Won
39%
(
11 of
28)
50%
(
5 of
10)
Break Points Won
67%
(
2 of
3)
36%
(
20 of
56)
Rtn Points Won
48%
(
33 of
69)
69
Total Points Won
56
|
7-5 6-2 | H2H | ||
| R2 |
Stats
Alex De Minaur
Player
Rafael Nadal
52%
(
28 of
54)
1st Serve %
68%
(
50 of
73)
2
Aces
0
3
Double Faults
1
75%
(
21 of
28)
1st Serve Won
58%
(
29 of
50)
65%
(
17 of
26)
2nd Serve Won
35%
(
8 of
23)
56%
(
5 of
9)
Break Points Won
33%
(
1 of
3)
30%
(
16 of
54)
Rtn Points Won
49%
(
36 of
73)
74
Total Points Won
53
|
7-5 6-1 | H2H | ||
| QF |
Stats
Novak Djokovic
Player
Alex De Minaur
66%
(
42 of
64)
1st Serve %
42%
(
30 of
71)
2
Aces
3
1
Double Faults
4
64%
(
27 of
42)
1st Serve Won
60%
(
18 of
30)
59%
(
13 of
22)
2nd Serve Won
49%
(
20 of
41)
45%
(
5 of
11)
Break Points Won
43%
(
3 of
7)
38%
(
24 of
64)
Rtn Points Won
46%
(
33 of
71)
73
Total Points Won
62
|
7-5 6-4 | H2H | ||
| R3 |
Stats
Alex De Minaur
Player
Alexei Popyrin
63%
(
27 of
43)
1st Serve %
67%
(
38 of
57)
2
Aces
1
0
Double Faults
1
70%
(
19 of
27)
1st Serve Won
66%
(
25 of
38)
94%
(
15 of
16)
2nd Serve Won
37%
(
7 of
19)
80%
(
4 of
5)
Break Points Won
100%
(
1 of
1)
21%
(
9 of
43)
Rtn Points Won
44%
(
25 of
57)
59
Total Points Won
41
|
6-3 6-4 | H2H | ||
| R2 |
Stats
Alex De Minaur
Player
Tallon Griekspoor
51%
(
36 of
70)
1st Serve %
66%
(
68 of
103)
2
Aces
6
3
Double Faults
4
78%
(
28 of
36)
1st Serve Won
65%
(
44 of
68)
47%
(
16 of
34)
2nd Serve Won
43%
(
15 of
35)
31%
(
4 of
13)
Break Points Won
50%
(
2 of
4)
37%
(
26 of
70)
Rtn Points Won
43%
(
44 of
103)
88
Total Points Won
85
|
2-6 6-2 6-3 | H2H | ||
| R1 |
Stats
Alex De Minaur
Player
Stan Wawrinka
43%
(
19 of
44)
1st Serve %
63%
(
34 of
54)
3
Aces
0
4
Double Faults
3
63%
(
12 of
19)
1st Serve Won
47%
(
16 of
34)
64%
(
16 of
25)
2nd Serve Won
35%
(
7 of
20)
50%
(
6 of
12)
Break Points Won
33%
(
1 of
3)
36%
(
16 of
44)
Rtn Points Won
57%
(
31 of
54)
59
Total Points Won
39
|
6-3 6-0 | H2H | ||
view more
Nadal Vs Minaur Prediction H2H Images To Share
Today's H2H Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
If you are looking to predict tennis or soccer matches, Matchstat.com has you covered! We have league, player and team stats, and specialise in detailed h2h stats between tennis players or soccer teams.
All our predictions are based on machine learning and AI. Matchstat is designed to help you in your analysis and predictions but the responsibility for your final predictions are your own.
It's good to talk... Get in touch with us [email protected]
